Historical experience shows that energy transition is a complex system engineering. As early as 2020, the electricity generation from renewable energy in EU countries has exceeded that of fossil energy. However, since the summer of 2021, affected by the climate, the supply of wind power in Europe has dropped significantly, which has greatly increased the demand for fossil energy and caused the price of natural gas to skyrocket. From the results, after the large-scale access of new energy sources, the current technology and infrastructure scale cannot effectively guarantee the flexible adjustment capability of the energy system. In addition, Europe's "advanced" transformation efforts have brought relatively heavy economic and social burdens, and these factors will hinder the transformation process.

Overly aggressive energy transition goals also tend to lead to miscalculation. Since the 1970s, successive Swedish governments have formulated bold plans for transitioning Sweden's energy supply. The country pledged in 2006 to become the first country in the world not to use oil by 2020, without using any nuclear energy. According to this goal, Sweden must convert half of its primary energy supply to renewable energy within 6 years, which is difficult to imagine. In fact, until 2019, only 30% of Sweden's transport energy came from renewable sources.

Facts have proved that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on a safe and reliable alternative to new energy. At present, the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in my country has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than 40%. However, because the available hours of power generation are much lower than the economic operating hours of coal-fired units, the power generation accounts for less than 30% of the total power generation. In particular, wind power and photovoltaics, which are growing faster in installed capacity, account for nearly 25% of installed capacity, but less than 10% of power generation. Coupled with the fact that sunlight, wind, and water all depend on the weather, it is difficult for renewable energy to play the mainstay in the current energy system. Next, while continuing to increase investment in new energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy, we must focus on improving new energy consumption and storage capabilities, actively build a new power system with new energy as the main body, and improve and improve it, which is conducive to the joint development and utilization of the whole society. The institutional mechanism and policy system of renewable energy have strongly promoted the transformation of renewable energy from supplementary energy to main energy.

At the same time, fossil energy, including coal and natural gas, is not only the "ballast stone" to ensure energy security, but also the "stabilizer" of power security under the new power system with a high proportion of new energy access. On the one hand, we should focus on the basic national conditions of coal as the mainstay, do a good job in the clean and efficient utilization of coal, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. While giving full play to the role of coal as a "ballast stone" in the energy system, "eat coarse grains and do meticulous work", vigorously promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal, develop modern coal chemical industry, and optimize the layout of coal production capacity. According to the development needs, we will rationally build advanced coal-fired power plants, continue to eliminate backward coal-fired power plants in an orderly manner, and minimize the adverse impact of coal resource development on the ecological environment.

On the other hand, full attention should be paid to the role of natural gas as a transitional energy source. At present and for a long period of time in the future, my country's energy development has entered a development stage where incremental substitution and stock substitution coexist. Natural gas is a fossil energy with low carbon emissions and has strong flexibility. Vigorously developing natural gas is of great significance for reducing carbon emissions. With the proposal of the "dual carbon" goal, the role of natural gas as a "bridge" in my country's energy green and low-carbon transition has become increasingly prominent. It is necessary to make full use of the domestic and international markets, adhere to the domestic base, continue to improve the level of domestic gas fields to increase production and supply, accelerate the construction of "one network across the country", improve interconnectivity, further improve the gas storage and peak regulation system, and enhance diversification. Import capacity, and take multiple measures to deal with possible disruptions in international oil and gas supply and price fluctuations.

While achieving "open source" in the energy transition, "throttling" cannot be ignored. Energy conservation is at the heart of the energy consumption revolution. The 2021 government work report proposes that the energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by about 3%, and the annual actual completion will be reduced by 2.7%. There is still some gap between the completion targets. In the future, it is necessary to continue to put energy conservation in the first place, implement a comprehensive conservation strategy, continue to reduce energy and resource consumption and carbon emissions per unit of output, improve input-output efficiency, advocate a green and low-carbon lifestyle, and form effective carbon emissions from the source and the entrance. Emission control valve.